Betting Analysis
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: It's THOR time in Utah
New week, new course on the PGA Tour. We're pumped to get a first look at the Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, site of this week's Black Desert Championship. Sick name, sick venue. Sick... field? Not quite.
But hey, it is the Fall swing SZN, which always leaves a bit to be desired. But there's still plenty to play for in this event and, as always, plenty to bet on. We just missed another winner last week on Keith Mitchell, who three-putted the last to lose in heartbreaking fashion. We're close to picking up another dub. Stick with us.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Black Desert Resort, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Black Desert Championship.
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Erik Van Rooyen (40-1, DraftKings) — EVR is a consistent player who always seems to play great at the end of the season, like we saw last year, winning in Mexico on a desert resort course with similarities to this one. He's also played decent lately in Europe, and I think he puts it all together this week. A course with wider fairways or long irons off the tee will help him get more birdie looks, and putting is his strong suit.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Michael Thorbjornsen (40-1, FanDuel) — More of a bet on talent type play rather than course or form fit this week. Thorbjornsen appears as if he’ll be near the top of the next wave of elite players, so in a few months time this may look like a sizeable discount against this strength of field. And really, his driving and putting have been elite since the swing season started, he just needs to rediscover his iron form from the late summer when he averaged 3.6 strokes-gained/approach over a three-event stretch.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Seamus Power (25-1, FanDuel) — Power is the best player in the field over the last 50 rounds by a pretty good margin, and even trimming that specifically to the last six months, he’s second in the field, according to datagolf. With a bit of an unknown course, it’s nice to know Power is a plus in all four strokes-gained categories in recent rounds.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Michael Thorbjornsen (40-1, FanDuel) — There’s little doubt in my mind that ball speed will be a huge benefit this week in Utah. Michael Thorbjornsen can really move it off the tee. PGA Tour University’s No. 1-ranked player is one of the most talented rookies on tour. Much like Ludvig last year, the University program is rewarding the right players. A top-eight finish at Sanderson along with a putter that has gained significantly in three straight starts, I’ll take his talent straight to window. Especially on a course where every player is a rookie along with him.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Patrick Fishburn (33-1, Bet365) — I bet Fishburn at this number last week, so I’m most certainly playing the Utah native in his home state. Black Desert should be a great venue for his off-the-tee prowess, as he’s gained off the tee in every measured start going back to the Valspar in March and is third in this field over the past 36 rounds in SG/off the tee. He’s used to the specific test of playing at elevation in Utah, and he’s proven his birdie-making abilities in similar types of events, so I’m willing to ride the narrative train with this bet.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Michael Thorbjornsen (40-1, FanDuel) — Thorbjornsen’s approach game has left quite a bit to be desired over his last few starts but his off-the-tee game has been strong dating all the way back to his runner-up finish at the at the John Deere Classic. We don’t have any data on this course but it sure seems like it’s going to be a classic grip-it-and-rip-it birdie-fest. Willing to bet on this young future stud at this price in a track meet against a weak field.
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Seamus Power (25-1, Bet365) — Seamus Power is coming off an 11th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms where he gained over a stroke in all four major categories, including 3.3 on approach. Power now returns to another resort course that should fit his skill set to a tee, as he ranks top five in this field in easy scoring conditions.
Past results: The panel is SCORCHING hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Michael Thorbjornsen (40-1, FanDuel) — This young up-and-comer has all the talent in the world to win on tour. He played decent in Jackson and should continue the momentum this week. With how well he hits it, he is due to contend again.
Mayo: Matti Schmid (60-1, Bet365) — Two top 20s in his past four PGA starts, including a T-16 last week, and now we get a course that may be able to be overpowered with an elite OTT week. Considering he was second OTT a week ago, should he maintain that form, there’s plenty of easy birdies out there for him.
Gdula: Ben Kohles (80-1, FanDuel) — Kohles’ iron play has been great, and he has ranked top 15 in SG/approach per round in each of his last three starts. He’s also a strong putter and is the most accurate driver in the field.
Stewart: Jacob Bridgeman (66-1, Bet365) — Another rookie that has put together a solid season is Jacob Bridgeman. The Canadian has three top 20s in his last four starts. A top three putter in the field, Bridgeman has gained with his putter in six straight events. Not many names in the middle of the betting board can equal his recent form and scoring ability. Jacob can send it when needed and as a result plays long par 4s very well. A leader in par-4 scoring overall, I love that consistency on a course where most will be wondering what to do.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Andrew Novak (40-1, BetMGM) — Novak’s approach play has been lights-out—gaining more than 12 strokes to the field in his past three starts. He’s also top 20 in birdies over the past 24 rounds, per FantasyNational.com. He’s shown his ability to spike with the putter as well—seven strokes in back-to-back events just a few months ago. Novak’s coming off a solid finish at the Sanderson, too, and has great finishes on desert courses this year with top 10s in Scottsdale and Mexico, so this is another confident play.
Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (50-1, Bet365) — I saw enough last week to hop back in on this four-time tour winner who gained over seven strokes tee-to-green last week and nearly five off the tee.
Lack: Justin Lower (60-1, Bet365) — Justin Lower continues to play some impressive golf this Fall swing, as he backed up his seventh-place finish at the Fortinet Championship with another top 30 at the Sanderson Farms. Lower gained over three strokes on approach last week in Jackson, and he remains the No. 1 Bentgrass putter in this field over a three-year sample size.
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Keith Mitchell (16-1, FanDuel) — Fresh off a heartbreaking loss at the Sanderson Farms, I just think it’s difficult to follow up a roller-coaster week like that. I don't expect him to contend this week.
Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (25-1, FanDuel) — Most definitely can win. But I like Kurt when he’s 80-1 and not one of the tournament favorites. Plus, I hear Utah is a few miles away from the coast. Not the best of a coastal specialist.
Gdula: Beau Hossler (28-1, FanDuel) — Hossler’s runner-up last week came with uncharacteristically good iron play, his third best SG/approach week of the 2024 year. He doesn’t tend to follow those up with great iron weeks.
Stewart: Keith Mitchell (16-1, FanDuel) — If you watched the final hole on Sunday at the Sanderson Farms Championship, then you know. Keith Mitchell is a valuable placement bet at the right price, but with wider fairways and no course experience, the separation in talent between 16-1 and 40-1 is razor thin. I’m happy to find more value down than board than take my chances with the favorite for the second week in a row.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (16-1, FanDuel) — It’s scary to fade my guy Mitchell after backing him last week, but this is a much shorter number and he’s now coming off the emotions of coming up short on the 72nd hole last week. It should be a course that suits his off-the-tee play, but I loved him on Bermuda greens, and not so much on a desert layout. Plus, the variance of a birdie-fest on a first-time venue doesn’t seem like the right time to back a favorite.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (16-1, FanDuel) — Mitchell does seem to have the demeanor required to bounce back quickly after that brutal finish last week, but I’d feel a lot better about his chances to do so if we were still playing in the southeast this week.
Lack: Chris Kirk (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Last time we saw Chris Kirk, he was finishing towards the bottom of the field at the Tour Championship. Outside of this being a questionable course fit that does not accentuate Kirk’s driving accuracy, I would much rather back players that have already gotten in some Fall swing reps.
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Andrew Novak (-152) over Harry Hall (Bet365) — Harry Hall has taken a few weeks off from PGA Tour action, and I think that will show. Novak, on the other hand, seems to be carrying a ton of confidence. This should be easy money!
Mayo: Justin Lower (+100) over Doug Ghim (Bet365) — Lower’s +1.2 SG/putting performance last week was actually the worst outing he’s produced with the flat stick since the Canadian Open in June. So, we may see his putter rebound in Utah. Couple that with his four straight starts gaining tee-to-green, and an ultra-hot putting week may get it done.
Gdula: Ben Griffin (-110) over Chris Kirk (FanDuel) — Griffin has really elevated his ball-striking this year and remains the better putter than Kirk along with that uptick.
Stewart: Harry Hall (+110) over Andrew Novak (Bet365) — UNLV’s Harry Hall feels right at home playing golf in southwest Utah. With Vegas just 130 miles away, conditions and course features will seem very commonplace to the transplanted Englishman. Hall won his first PGA Tour event in a playoff on a lengthy layout this summer. A top-10 putter and short game player in the field, when it comes to desert scoring, Hall is extremely effective. Andrew Novak’s name pops up every week. A great ball-striker, the issue with Andrew is his results. With just one top 10 in his past 12 starts, Andrew’s successful run of strong finishes early season has not returned.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Andrew Novak (-152) over Harry Hall (Bet365) — Following our caddie’s insights from the range at the Black Desert Championship on this one. It’s a big Novak week, and not so much for Harry Hall!
Powers, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (-110) over Adam Svensson (Bet365) — Smalley is coming off a top-five finish where he gained in every major area except around the green. Svensson is coming of his second missed cut in his last 17 starts.
Lack: Seamus Power (-110) over Kurt Kitayama (DraftKings) — Similar to the anti-Chris Kirk argument, this will be Kurt Kitayama’s first appearance since the Wyndham Championship. Seamus Power, on the other hand, is coming off an extremely well-rounded performance at the Sanderson Farms, and I expect his strong play to continue this week in Utah.
Matchup Results from the Sanderson Farms Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (C. Kim (-130) over English); Caddie: 1 for 1 (Jaeger (-120) over Svensson); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Moore (-125) over Champ); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (C. Kim (-130) over English); Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 23-12-2 (up 8.21 units); Caddie: 22-14-0 (up 5.84 units); Gdula: 21-13-3 (up 5.33 units); Hennessey: 19-13-5 (up 4.47 units); Powers: 16-17-3 (down 1.34 units); Mayo: 17-19-1 (down 2.39 units); Stewart: 14-21-2 (down 8.01 units)
Black Desert Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Daniel Berger (+400, Bet365) — Looks like he's working back to the form that led him to contending in majors. He was in contention a week ago and seems to be believing in himself again. He has reunited with his old caddie, and they seem to have picked up where they left off.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (+400, Bet365) — It’s time to fire on the resurgence. I’ve waited long enough. Berger’s only top 20 since his return from injury in January (outside of the last week, of course) was at the Weiskopf design at the Byron Nelson (T-13). He led all players off the tee in Jackson and gained more than a strokes vs the field with his approach play for the first time since the U.S. Open.
Gdula: Mac Meissner (+400, FanDuel) — Meissner has a balanced game (ninth in ball-striking and 15th in around-the-green play) and could see a bit of a boost due to the elevation, given he’s a shorter hitter.
Stewart: Lucas Glover (+400, DraftKings) — After winning twice to close the season in 2023, Lucas Glover did not make the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2024. He mentioned a renewed focus for the Fall run and since has started 13th (Procore) and third (Sanderson Farms). The trend is our friend with this one as Glover’s game is perfect for a brand-new course. The less history for Lucas on the greens, the better. Doesn’t matter what the hole looks like, Glover is guaranteed to find his target(s). In a week with so many questions, I believe Lucas Glover’s game will provide some reliable answers.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Andrew Novak (+360, DraftKings) — I gave my reason why I’m betting him outright above, and I’ll back that up with a top-10 bet considering how consistent he’s been this year.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rico Hoey (+475, Bet365) — Hoey was a popular play at the Procore, and he wound up hitting it quite well but the result didn’t match up with the stats. Last week was an even worse result thanks to an ice-cold putter. Bombs away this week for the big-hitting Hoey in Utah. If we can get the putter to flip, I think we’ll see him sniffing around the top 10 like he did twice in three starts in late June and early July.
Lack: Andrew Novak (+360, DraftKings) — Andrew Novak has quietly developed into one of the strongest approach players in this field, and he is coming off a 23rd-place finish at the Sanderson Farms where he gained over three strokes on approach. Novak now returns to another wide-open, resort style golf course where his approach play should shine.
Top-10 results from the Sanderson Farms Championship: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 12 for 37 (up 65.85 units); Gdula: 7 for 37 (down 5.1 units); Mayo: 7 for 37 (down 5.5 units); Powers: 7 for 37 (down 7.1 units); Caddie: 7 for 36 (down 8.93 units); Stewart: 6 for 37 (down 12.42 units); Lack: 7 for 37 (down 14.05 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports