Betting Analysis
Procore Championship picks 2024: Can this former PGA Tour ROY finally break through?
Some offseason, huh?
Hey, we're not complaining, especially when you consider how hot we were to finish the regular season and the Playoffs. We'd like to keep that hot hand going during the FedEx Cup Fall, starting with this week's Procore Championship, otherwise known as the Fortinet. Or the Safeway. Or the Frys.com. Hell, let's just call it "the one in Napa."
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Silverado, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Procore Championship.
Procore Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Corey Conners (16-1, Bet365) — The Canadian has had a consistent last few months, and he has a great chance to pay that off with a victory on a course where his accuracy off the tee and consistent approach play will be rewarded. He’s motivated to keep the pedal down at this time of the year to enter the Presidents Cup as a win and be looked at as a leader in Canada.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Keith Mitchell (40-1, Bet365) — Mitchell ranks first tee-to-green in the field over the past 24 rounds. But it’s the same story as every week with Killah Keith: Will he make enough putts to cross the finish line? Amazingly, he gained 3.3 on the greens at Sedgefield his last time out. Problem is, he hasn’t gained with his putter in consecutive starts since the 2023 Wells Fargo/PGA Championship. But there’s a path to victory for Mitchell – Brendan Steele, Cameron Champ and Kevin Tway, all former winners in Napa, all just mashed the field tee-to-green and gained three or fewer strokes putting in their wins.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Sahith Theegala (12-1, FanDuel) — I think Theegala can go back-to-back at Silverado. He led the Tour Championship in strokes-gained/approach, he rates out as a plus baseline putter from within 15 feet, and he is better on bent and poa than on Bermuda greens. This all checks out for the President Cup member, whose trajectory is continuing to go up.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Maverick McNealy (22-1, BetRivers) — The Stanford standout is having a very well-rounded 2024 campaign. Known for his putter, McNealy has really improved his ball-striking. Since returning from injury last Fall, he has eight top 25s. The driver has really become a weapon to go alongside his flat stick. Mav was the runner-up at Silverado in 2021 to Max Homa and very comfortable on California courses. What better way to cap a great run than with a win. An excellent par-4 player, McNealy is top 10 in the field for birdie-or-better percentage and putting prowess on Poa annua greens. Take that cash complement of characteristics straight to the ticket window.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Eric Cole (45-1, FanDuel) — It requires hot approach play and a hot putter to win in Napa. Cole can get as hot as anybody in each category. It’s a club-down course, which plays into Cole’s hands. He proved that with a top-five finish last year at this event. Cole’s been trending toward a win the past few years, and this is an ideal spot to do it.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Eric Cole (45-1, FanDuel) — Will Cole win? Probably not, he never does. But I’m not prepared to quit him at 40-1 in a weak field after his strong run to end the regular season. Cole has gained on approach in six of the last seven and the worst club in his bag, the driver, is mitigated at the short North Course at Silverado.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Eric Cole (45-1, FanDuel) — If there is ever a spot for Eric Cole to breakthrough for his first PGA Tour victory, Silverado is it. The 36-year-old finished fourth at this event last year, and his elite combination of wedge play and putting inside 15 feet will continue to pay dividends in Napa.
Past results: The panel is SCORCHING hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
Procore Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Daniel Berger (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Berger is back with confidence this week in Napa, knowing his game’s in a good place for a strong fall to secure his card. He hasn’t contended since his return, so he still needs those reps, but he can rely on muscle memory once he gets there.
Mayo: Nick Hardy (150-1, BetMGM) — Top five in ball-striking in the short term, sitting 16th in Opportunities Gained (Putts for eagle/birdie from inside 20 feet), and 34th in driving distance. He’s simply been putting himself out of tournaments. Basically, load up with enough of these great tee-to-green players who are terrible on the greens and pray one of them has a decent putting week.
Gdula: Mac Meissner (50-1, FanDuel) — Meissner is a player to keep your eyes on in the Fall. His irons are translating to the PGA Tour. He’s gained on approach in eight of his last 10 PGA Tour starts and in six straight. He’s also finished top 20 in four of his last five starts on the tour.
Stewart: Mac Meissner (50-1, FanDuel) — Most haven’t heard of Mac Meissner. The Korn Ferry star has stood out as an exceptional ball-striker in his rookie PGA Tour season. Meissner has six top 20s since April and can seriously go low. Mac finished fourth at the Barracuda in July. Over his last five starts, Meissner is gaining three strokes against the field with his approach game (on average). That level of proximity presents tons of birdie chances and he’s recently been trending with the putter. This top-10 flusher is going to have a great Fall, get on him now.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Nick Taylor (80-1, FanDuel) — It surprised many that Nick Taylor was left off this year’s Presidents Cup team in Canada. I’m sure it has motivated him to prove he should be on this team. I think it’s worth backing him with that extra motivation. He also has a sixth-place and a 10th-place finish his past four starts in Napa, so it’s a course that suits his game.
Powers, Golf Digest: Kevin Kisner (1,000-1, Bet365) — You can laugh it up, but Kiz, in between TV stints, gained with his irons in consecutive starts at the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship. That’s something he hasn’t done in two years. He’s also gained with his putter in eight of his last nine, which is hardly surprising as that’s his money-making club. Wedge play and putting is the recipe in Napa. You got a buck lying around to win $1,000? I spent $12 on coffee this morning. I can stomach a George Washington on Kiz in a poor field on one of the handful of courses on earth he could still maybe hang on.
Lack: Andrew Putnam (90-1, FanDuel) — Similar to Eric Cole, Andrew Putnam possesses the ideal combination of wedge play and putting, and the 35-year-old has gained over six strokes on approach in two of his last three starts. Putnam’s upside with his irons makes him one of my favorite value plays on the board.
Procore Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Max Homa (25-1, FanDuel) — It wouldn’t surprise me to see Homa show flashes in a familiar setting, but he’s shown that he can’t put four rounds together since the spring. I’d need to see that before backing him at these odds.
Mayo: Maverick McNealy (20-1, FanDuel) — You want to give me Mav at double or triple this price, then sure. But as one of the favorites, no thanks.
Gdula: Max Homa (25-1, FanDuel) — Homa’s irons were great at the BMW Championship, but his driver was still off, and the putter was cold. There are a lot of issues with his game right now, and while he’s won here twice and played well, that’s got his odds way too short for what they deserve to be.
Stewart: Max Homa (25-1, FanDuel) — Max Homa is ranked 138th in the Procore field for strokes-gained/off-the-tee. There are only 144 players in this field. Homa’s struggles with the driver are well documented and have caused issues to creep into other parts of his game. Over his last five starts, Max is losing over five strokes to the field. Homa recently switched coaches and must get his game in order for the Presidents Cup. There’s no doubt Max will come back, but for now I’ll pass and wait for a couple signs of positive form.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Max Homa (25-1, FanDuel) — Homa’s best result since May is a 22nd-place finish. We realize Napa is a successful place for Homa, but you need to take a leap of faith that his ball-striking and putting have improved in just a few weeks. That’s why his odds have skyrocketed in from the opener at DraftKings to currently being 28-1.
Powers, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (14-1, DraftKings) — Conners’ weakness is putting, and his worst surface is poa. That’s an instant no for me dawg at 14-1.
Lack: Maverick McNealy (20-1, FanDuel) — I am just as enamored by Maverick McNealy as anyone else, but I cannot justify this robust price tag. McNealy is still a very questionable wedge player and overall ball-striker, and he will need to rely on elite putting to contend.
Procore Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Tom Hoge (-139) over Harris English (Bet365) — A course that deemphasizes distance, makes you hit fairways and pepper greens should suit Hoge’s game. Even if he can’t putt, he should find the weekend, whereas English can get wild off the tee and plays his best golf on tougher, more demanding layouts.
Mayo: Eric Cole (+110) over J.J. Spaun (Bet365) — Cole made it all the way to the penultimate event in the playoffs before coming up just short in Denver. Looking deeper, Cole ended the year with three straight top 10s in the last three non-elevated fields/non-majors, while gaining with his irons in six of his final seven overall. This field certainly isn’t setting records for field strength. He was fourth at Silverado last year too, a course which has been sticky for history.
Gdula: Luke Clanton (-115) over J.J. Spaun (FanDuel) — Clanton is nearly a shot per round better than Spaun over the last six months once adjusted for field strength, according to datagolf, and he’s a substantially better ball-striker in that span.
Stewart: Matt Kuchar (-105) over Doug Ghim (BetMGM) — Matt Kuchar made a serious playoff run at the end of the season. Kuchar gained an average of five strokes on the field over his last five events. Twelfth at Wyndham and third at 3M, Matt now heads to Silverado where he finished seventh and 12th the last two years. Doug Ghim also has two top 20s in Napa over his last four starts. The dilemma for Doug is the putter. A faulty flat stick has kept him from finishing inside that top 20 since the Players in March. Continue with Kuch to take down Ghim at the Procore Championship.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (-150) over Max Homa (FanDuel) — The RickRunGood.com matchup predictor makes McNealy a favorite of over -270 in this one over a 50-round baseline.
Powers, Golf Digest: Max Homa (+115) over Maverick McNealy (FanDuel) — I’ve officially seen too much Max Homa hate, some of it from myself, too. Homa finally flashed with the irons at BMW and he can hopefully keep that mojo rolling in Napa, where he’s won twice.
Lack: Max Homa (-110) over Keith Mitchell (Heritage) — While Max Homa has unquestionably been struggling, this is a the perfect get right spot for the California native. Homa is a multiple time winner of this event, and the number one West Coast player in the entire field. After a surprise Presidents Cup selection, I expect Homa to be hyper-focused on dialing in his game before Royal Montreal. Keith Mitchell is a great driver of the ball, but Silverado should stifle his greatest weapon and force the 32-year-old to rely heavily on the strength of his putter. Particularly on this golf course, it’s time to buy the dip on Homa.
Matchup Results from the Tour Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (An (-120) over Bhatia); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Pendrith (-120) over Kirk); Caddie: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 22-11-2 (up 8.44 units); Caddie: 20-14-0 (up 4.29 units); Gdula: 20-12-3 (up 5.53 units); Hennessey: 18-13-4 (up 3.7 units); Powers: 16-16-2 (down 0.34 units); Mayo: 17-17-1 (down 0.39 units); Stewart: 13-20-2 (down 7.96 units)
Procore Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Luke Clanton (+260, FanDuel) — The kid is on the verge of becoming a full-blown star, and he certainly has the attention of everyone here. He seems to have threatened to win every time he tees it up, and that’ll probably be the case again this week.
Mayo: Tom Hoge (+400, FanDuel) — Hoge is a victim of his success on the odds board. J.J. Spaun did moderately well at alternate events and weaker fields to end the year, so he gets a big boost. Hoge leads all players in approach at the BMW Championship then gets blown away by Scheffler, Morikawa, etc. at East Lake and he’s well behind Spaun (and many others) on the board in Napa.
Gdula: Tom Hoge (+400, FanDuel) — Hoge rates out with top-five irons over the last 50 rounds, via datagolf, and he’s got great splits from within 150 yards. That’ll come in handy at a shorter course with smaller greens. Hoge finished T-12 here last year, as well.
Stewart: J.J. Spaun (+300, BetMGM) — West Coast native J.J. Spaun can compete on California courses. Tied 11th here last September, Spaun’s ball-striking ability fits the North Course. Ninth at the 3M and third at Wyndham, J.J. has been swinging well. He’s gaining over seven strokes against the field (on average) over his past five starts. I like Spaun’s approach game to make him a contender let alone a top-10 finisher in Napa.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: J.J. Spaun (+300, BetMGM) — Spaun is coming off two top-10 finishes in his last two starts—and now returns to his home state where he has a T-9 in 2021.
Powers, Golf Digest: Michael Thorbjornsen (+550, DraftKings) — Thorbjornsen is just a few months removed from a T-2 finish at the John Deere Classic, where he gained strokes across the board in all major categories before finishing the season with three straight missed cuts. I’m betting on that upside to show up again in the Fall opener in Napa, just 90 minutes from where he went to college at Stanford.
Lack: Brendon Todd (+350, DraftKings) — As one of the shortest players on tour, Brendon Todd breaks the mold of the modern PGA Tour pro. Yet for what he lacks in distance, he makes up for with elite wedge play and putting. As one of the shortest courses on tour, Silverado is one of the few venues that plays right into Todd’s hands, and it should not come as a surprise that he finished top 10 in his last two appearances here.
Top-10 results from the Tour Championship: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley +180); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (S.J. Im +150); Powers: 1 for 1 (S.J. Im +150); Lack: 1 for 1 (S.J. Im +150); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 12 for 35 (up 67.85 units); Powers: 7 for 35 (down 5.1 units); Caddie: 7 for 34 (down 6.93 units); Mayo: 6 for 35 (down 7.5 units); Gdula: 6 for 35 (down 8.1 units); Stewart: 6 for 35 (down 10.42 units); Lack: 7 for 35 (down 12.05 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports